Top New Zealand Government and IPCC contributor admits that climate predictors get it right only about half the time, not just in New Zealand , but elsehwere around the world.
A top New Zealand Government scientist, and contributor to IPCC, admits that climate predictions are right only half the time, not just here in New Zealand, but elsewhere around the world
# The New Zealand
# Climate Science Coalition
Hon Secretary, Terry Dunleavy MBE, 14A Bayview Road, Hauraki, North Shore City, NZ 0622
Phone (09) 486 3859 - Mobile 0274 836688 - Email - email@example.com
## Media release (immediate) 7 June 2007
## World climate predictors right only
## half the time
“The open admission by a climate scientist of the New Zealand National
Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Dr Jim Renwick,
that his organisation achieves only 50 per cent accuracy in its climate
forecasts, and that this is as good as any other forecaster around the
world, should be a wake-up call for world political leaders,” said Rear
Admiral Jack Welch, chairman of the New Zealand Climate Science
Yesterday the coalition published an analysis of seasonal climate
predictions by NIWA over the past five years which found that the
overall accuracy of the predictions was just 48 per cent.
Defending the Niwa record, Dr Renwick said his organisation was doing
as well as any other weather forecaster around the world. He was quoted
by the country’s leading newspaper, the New Zealand Herald as saying:
“Climate prediction is hard, half of the variability in the climate system is
not predictable, so we don’t expect to do terrifically well.” Later on New
Zealand radio, Dr Renwick said: “The weather is not predictable beyond
a week or two.”
Admiral Welch said that these statements warrant immediate attention by
governments around the world. “Dr Renwick is no lightweight. He was a
lead author on Working Group I of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, and
serves on the World Meteorological Organisation Commission for
Climatology Expert Team on Seasonal Forecasting. He is presumed to be
au fait with the abilities of the official governmental climate prediction
community round the world.
“All round the developed world, governments are being pressured by the
United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to
accept the integrity of scenarios of future climate behaviour agreed by
their own climate bureaucrats, but these bureaucrats are the very people
that Dr Renwick now tells us get it right only half the time. Worse, he
tells us they are unable to predict weather beyond a week or two, yet in
conjunction with the IPCC they presume to tell us what to expect over the
next few decades.
“The link between climate and weather is well known: climate is
determined by averaging weather variables over an extended period
(usually 30 years) at one place or for a region. How can there be any faith
in climate predictions by officials who admit they are unable to forecast
the weather beyond a week or two?
“Perhaps now, governments will pay heed to those many independent
climate scientists around the world who have been challenging the
exaggerated projections by IPCC officials, and those political zealots
such as Al Gore who use those predictions to mislead the ordinary public.
“In the light of these revelations and recent strong evidence that the sun
not carbon dioxide controls the climate, the new Secretary General of the
UN, Ban Ki Moon would do the world a great service by creating an
opportunity for the world to hear from the independent scientists who
disagree with the IPCC’s blaming mankind for climate variability that is
natural and historic. There is no scientific justification for some of the
extremist economic and social penalties that a minority of zealots are
trying to impose on the people of the world.
“This is a matter of grave import and urgency for poorer nations who will
suffer most from the proposed penal measures, “ said Admiral Welch.
Contact: Rear Admiral (ret) Jack Welch CBE, tel 0064 9 4891237