Independent Mathematicians Hand IPCC Potentially Major Problem:
Expected Temperature Rise 1 degree, Not 3.
In a move that could mark a significant turning point in the history of the greenhouse warming debate, Viscount Christopher Monckton and Dr David Evans produced a document with a mathematical proof that the IPCC have overestimated the effect of greenhouse forcings by as much as threefold.
The document attached was distributed to all delegates of the plenary session on Thursday 13 December, 2007 at the UNFCCC conference in Bali.
There are thousands of scientific papers related to climate change and greenhouse gases, almost all of which assume that CO2 and other greenhouse gases have a significant effect on temperature. The Monckton and Evans paper attacks the most central point underlying all the others. They used the Stefan–Boltzmann equation, and another method, to show that the IPCC is exaggerating the effect of CO2 on global temperatures.
Their calculations need to be repeated by other independent scientists, but, if they are correct, it would mean that there is no basis for action on carbon emissions.
When asked “Why should we believe your results when there are thousands of papers pointing to greenhouse gases having a significant effect?” Dr David Evans replied:
“It only takes one paper to disprove a theory. Science is not a democratic
process. It’s about who has the better answer”.
Joanne Nova, International Climate Science Coalition, said:
“Almost all papers published on greenhouse gases and climate assume that temperature
sensitivity of the climate to small changes in greenhouse gases is significant. Only a
small proportion of papers address that topic exactly, and if a few central papers are
wrong, the whole debate changes.”
Viscount Christopher Monckton of Brenchley is a Nobel Prize winning contributor to IPCC reports. Viscount Monckton has been an outspoken critic of the Kyoto Treaty and the IPCC scientific process. He was science advisor to Margaret Thatcher, his articles have been published in many prominent papers worldwide, and he is presently a member of the House of Lords.
Dr David Evans has six degrees in Maths, Stats, and Electrical Engineering, including three from Stanford.