Posted 21 August 2012

"Statistical analyses of hydrological time series are an essential component for the development and management of water resources in countries with dry climates. This becomes critical as the water requirements approach the maximum available resources. To complicate matters, the drier the climate the greater the variability of the climatic processes on all time and space scales.Multiyear droughts are the greatest concern. The most important question that needs to be addressed is: are these droughts predictable? Joseph’s biblical prophecy of seven good years followed by seven years of famine is an example of a successful prediction and subsequent measures that were taken to reduce the consequences. Why is it that 3000 years later, modern scientists are still incapable of developing reliable drought prediction methods? " Professor Will Alexander, of South Africa, answers.

Download pdf [here ](memo 10.12 national crisis ahead.pdf)

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